Decline deepens despite traditional inventory build season; blank sailings drop to just 11 total as tariff shockwave stabilizes; Indonesia imports surge 35%

CHICAGO, Feb. 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — project44 today released its February 2026 tariff report, analyzing the latest shifts in global trade patterns amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. U.S. imports from China fell 35% year-over-year in January 2026, even during the traditional Lunar New Year inventory build period, when companies typically stockpile goods ahead of factory shutdowns. The decline marks an acceleration from the 29% drop seen across all of 2025.

Key Findings:

• Blank sailings normalize: Blank sailings peaked at 131 in April 2025. The lanes with the most blank sailings that month were Asia to U.S. at 39, China to U.S. at 33, and U.S. to China at 30. By January 2026, total blank sailings across major routes fell to 11, signaling carriers have adjusted capacity to lower trade volumes.
• Imports from China remain depressed: U.S. imports from China fell 29% year-over-year in 2025. January 2026 volumes declined 35% compared to January 2025.
• Exports to China under continued pressure: U.S. exports to China dropped 37% in 2025 versus 2024. December rose 14% year-over-year, the first positive month since tariffs took effect, before January 2026 declined 20% year-over-year.
• Southeast Asia strengthens as sourcing alternative: In 2025, U.S. imports increased 30% from Thailand and 34% from Indonesia, compared to 2024. Growth continued in January 2026, with Thailand up 14% and Indonesia up 35%, positioning Indonesia as a key alternative supplier.

“Blank sailings have normalized and carriers have adjusted capacity, but that shouldn’t be mistaken for stability,” said Eric Fullerton, VP of Product Marketing and Data Insights at project44. “U.S.-China trade remains 30-35% below prior-year levels, Southeast Asian sourcing is accelerating, and major legal challenges to tariff authority remain unresolved. Companies need to build this uncertainty into their strategic planning to maintain supply chain performance.”

project44’s monthly tariff report analyzes real-time shipment data across global trade lanes to provide intelligence on trade flows, capacity shifts, and sourcing trends. Through its Decision Intelligence Platform, project44 delivers end-to-end visibility into how tariff and policy changes reshape global supply chains.

The full February tariff report is available on project44’s Supply Chain Insights hub.

About project44
project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its Multi-Agent Orchestration transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With intelligent transportation management, end-to-end visibility, yard management and last mile solutions, project44 connects over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food & beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical & gas. Learn more at project44.com.

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SOURCE project44